EMCS : Monthly Outlook Survey in Services - 2019
Data description
The opinion of entrepeneurs is tracked by monitoring turnover and activity-related variables such as prices, demand, operating profit and changes to the workforce.
The entrepreneurs also provide an opinion on their cash flow and their recruitment difficulties, their general feeling of the overall situation of their company and any factors that might be restricting their activity.
Mostly, the questions are qualitative, with three choices. The results are balances of opinion calculated as the difference between the percentage of <<up (+)>> and the percentage of <<down (-)>>.
Sector coverage
The survey covers almost all of the following sectors: accommodation and catering; information and communication; real estate activities; specialised, scientific and technical activities; administrative and support activities; other service activities; road goods haulage and courier services.
More precisely, the survey covers the sectors defined by the French Nomenclature of Activities (NAF Rev. 2) codes: 49.41, 52.29A, 53.2, 55.1, 55.2, 56.1, 56.21Z, 56.3, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 68 (except 68.32B), 69, 70 (except 70.10Z), 71, 73, 74, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81 (except 81.30Z), 82, 95, 96.
Statistical concepts and definitions
The composite business climate indicator describes the common component of the selected balances of opinion on past activity, forecast activity, judgement of order books, past work force and production capacity utilisation rate.
The turning point indicator aims to detect as early as possible when the outlook trend changes direction. This is a qualitative variable which is not directly observed. The indicator is presented in the form of a curve, retracing for each date the difference between the probability that the cyclical phase is favourable and the probability that is unfavourable.
Statistical unit
The unit interviewed is the company.
Reference area
France métropolitaine
Until 2007, the survey was carried out each month except in August. Since 2008 it has been carried out every month.
Sample size
4,500 units
Data collection documents
The survey is conducted every month but not all questions are asked every month. Some questions are only asked to enterprises in road haulage of goods.
In practice, three models of questionnaires were created to take into account these specificities:
- the first questionnaire corresponds to the months of January and July;
- the second one is sent in February, March, April, May, June, August, Septembre, November and December;
- the last one is sent in April and October.
- 2019 Questionnaire for February, March, April, May, June, August, Septembre, November and December for enterprises in road haulage of goods and other service enterprises (pdf, fr)
- 2019 Questionnaire for January and July for other service enterprises (pdf, fr)
- 2019 Questionnaire for January and July for enterprises in road haulage of goods (pdf, fr)
- 2019 Questionnaire for April and October for other service enterprises (pdf, fr)
- 2019 Questionnaire for April and October for enterprises in road haulage of goods (fr) (pdf, fr)