This project investigates why farmers—a highly subsidized and influential group have become central to electoral volatility. Using administrative data and causal methods, the study examines the interaction between the CAP and structural shifts in the sector across two main axes:
Globalization and Volatility: Assessing the impact of price declines on far-right voting. RICA data allow us to test whether a decline in the income of surveyed farmers, matched to their municipalities, leads to an increase in far-right voting from one year to the next.
Labor and Profitability: Testing if migrant labor (from census data) reduces radical supportby improving farm viability . The mechanism is identified via geolocated RICA data, linking accounting structures and employment to local electoral outcomes.
Two complementary axes address digitalization and the implementation of environmental standards.
